Olha Aivazovska: One shelling on election day could lead to a drop in turnout across the country

07.02.2025

The United States has called for elections in Ukraine, arguing that most democracies hold elections during wartime. Russia is manipulating and spreading fake news that the government in Ukraine is allegedly illegitimate. However, elections are prohibited by the Constitution during martial law. During his speech at the Munich Security Conference, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured that he was ‘ready to talk about elections in Ukraine, but Ukrainians do not want elections at all’.

It takes 6 to 12 months after the end of martial law to prepare for elections, says Olha Aivazovska, chair of the board of the civil network ‘Opora’, who has been monitoring the organisation of elections for 20 years, in the project Mosty (The Bridges of Ukraine). Before the first post-war elections in Ukraine, it is necessary to conduct a security audit of the infrastructure for their holding and adopt a special law to minimise Russia’s influence, and prevent collaborators from voting and pro-Russian parties from running.

Ukrainians who find themselves abroad because of Russian aggression should be able to run for parliament. To do this, exceptions should be made in the legislation to allow those who have not lived in Ukraine for five years to be elected. Also, parties should include Ukrainians abroad in their lists to participate in political life in Ukraine and represent the voices of the global Ukrainian community,’ believes Olha Aivazovska.

Ukraine is an electoral democracy. We elect our government, and it is either legitimate for the Ukrainian people or not. The society has no questions about its legitimacy, which has been demonstrated by sociology over the past 3 years. All branches of power in Ukraine are capable, and legally competent and will perform their functions until the next election.

After the US presidential election, it was obvious to me that we were getting closer to the elections. In public statements, we hear that after the ceasefire, which will stop the active phase of hostilities, elections must be held so that the new or re-elected head of state has the authority to sign documents related to war and peace.

The US administration has its own vision of the sequence of actions. The Russian Federation, which wants to destroy us politically during this campaign when we are at our weakest, has a different vision. But they are united by the word ‘elections’.

The question is where we are, what we are doing today and what we will do tomorrow in any scenario. When a full-fledged political process begins, will we be ready to defend independence at the next stages of statehood development and prevent Russia’s interference in politics? Capturing a state politically, especially at a time of exhaustion, is easier and cheaper than carrying out massive offensive actions in the future.

Any national campaign takes at least six months to prepare after the end of martial law. In global practice, post-conflict elections take 9-12 months to prepare. That is, from 6 to 12 months, if we don’t have to solve some other global problems that we don’t even know about now.

Speaking of elections in Ukraine, the first thing we need to do is decide on the territory where we can organise them, even after the ceasefire. To do this, there should be a security audit across the country: whether the infrastructure is in place, including in case of shelling on election day or endless sirens. Is it a school or a community close to potential shelling? Russia may escalate on election day, so shelter should be built there. Victims can delegitimise the process or paralyse it: one shelling on election day can lead to a drop in turnout across the country.

There should be a special separate law that creates the basis for exercising the right in the new conditions. For some, this means voting abroad, for others – near the contact line. For some, it means participating in elections if a person has not yet been convicted, but investigative actions are already underway, and there are grounds to believe that he or she has committed war crimes or crimes in the context of harming national security. We have banned parties. But these politicians can transform into another political force and run for election. Could this pose a threat to national security? Yes, and there must be a solution for this. Also, whether we are really approaching the first post-war elections with a lustration method. There is no such discussion now.

For Ukraine, elections are a moment of political exposure and exhaustion. The country has not had full-scale elections in five years. This means that our infrastructure has sagged and been physically destroyed. This applies to polling stations, the reliability and accuracy of the state register as a single electronic database, and the work of the media.

The issue of the foreign constituency is very important. We need to provide for the desired quotas in the lists of political parties in the parliamentary elections – those who will represent this policy. We have so many committees and policies. We have people in charge of education, healthcare, judicial reform, and European integration. Why not for global Ukrainianness, which everyone is talking about? Human capital is a matter of Ukraine’s survival and, therefore, of national security. If the list does not include a person who can be the voice of this community and is interested in systematically raising these issues at the policy level in parliament, then we are creating inadequate prospects for ourselves.

The Verkhovna Rada has already registered a draft law prepared by us, which provides for exceptions for citizens who, due to force majeure during the war, went abroad and stayed there for a certain period of time, violating the residency requirement.

That is, certain exceptions are required for these extraordinary elections. In addition to the residency requirement, there is also an extraordinary number of polling stations and a procedure for registering citizens abroad. For example, if you want to vote but are not registered with the consulate, it is impossible. Therefore, an active registration form can be envisaged, changing the electoral address to a foreign electoral district. That is, you, as a citizen who lives there, do not register with the consulate because you do not want to or cannot, but you change your electoral address and vote abroad on your own free will, and the state does not do this for you by looking for your data, asking where you are. This is an active form of registration of the citizen’s own free will. And it can be organised in a simple way.

Their voices can definitely have an impact. In my opinion, this is good, because the issue is not about the difference in audiences. In Moldova, Russia bought voters. At some point, the Russian ruble was no longer accepted in banks for exchange.

Is it possible to buy the whole of Ukraine and, therefore, have only foreign Ukrainians for the balance? No. We have to consider the issue of representativeness of the government as a key one.

Because a proper parliament is one that is elected in fair and free elections and represents society. We know that this piece of society exists outside the formal territory, but lives in this information space, sends money here, comes here, takes their families there, and then returns.

My dream is that our parties would be adequate enough to introduce quotas for the representation of this policy voice on their lists – a person who is potentially a future prime minister or minister of education. The country will not survive without people who are able to work in different sectors of the economy, but who can be mobile enough, knowing that Ukraine will be a member of the EU. So, you can live there for 10 years and then open a business here, because it turns out that taxes are lower here, but there are no borders, you can transport goods and make a profit. Why do people in certain EU countries migrate from country to country? Because there is an obligation to pay taxes after a certain period. And you can work in the IT sector, live in one country for six months, and then move to another country with lower taxes. I am convinced that many nuances can attract Ukrainians after the war and even those who have been there for a long time.