Andriy Gaidutsky: After the cessation of hostilities or victory, 1-2 million may leave

18.10.2024

According to Andriy Gaidutskyi, a doctor of economics and expert on migration policy, it is not the ministry but local communities that should return Ukrainians. They should develop programmes encouraging Ukrainians to open businesses in their hometowns, even while staying abroad, or to return.

At the same time, the National Bank of Ukraine should work on financial programmes to attract migrants’ funds so that they can keep them in Ukrainian bank deposits on more favourable terms than in Europe. This is also one of the encouragements to return home later.

Which European countries are no longer ready to let Ukrainians go home? Why should we not return all of them, but rather attract wealthy Ukrainian migrants? How can the experience of Ireland, Israel and India help us?

Andriy Gaidutsky answers these and other questions in the project Mosty (The Bridges of Ukraine) by the Civic Initiative “Holka”.

What will influence the decision of Ukrainians to return home?

It depends on two factors: whether Ukraine will be actively engaged in this and the policies of other countries. And they are doing more and more to make sure that Ukrainians stay. But the decisive factor will be the Ukrainians themselves.

The key role of this newly created ministry should be to cooperate with local authorities and encourage them to develop programmes for the return of migrants. There should be a variety of such programmes, competing with each other, so that the best ones produce real results. If the ministry ‘cuts’ programmes, it does not guarantee their success.

Andriy Gaidutskyi, a doctor of economics and expert on migration policy

Second, the ministry should cooperate more with the National Bank. It is very important to develop financial and banking programmes for the return of migrants. Currently, 30% to 70% of Ukrainian refugees are working abroad. They are building up savings, and this is already billions of dollars. Therefore, the role of the National Bank is to direct commercial banks to develop programmes to attract the income of Ukrainian refugees, the diaspora, and migrants. If a person has transferred some of their money back home, in 5-10 years there will be nothing to stop them from staying abroad. Because they will keep all their savings in Ukraine and invest them in something.

What return programmes should local communities offer?

There are three groups of programmes. The first is financial. These are mortgages and construction. Local authorities should cooperate with construction companies to develop programmes for migrant households that want to buy property.

The second is information programmes. This is a constant work: ‘Come and see how easy it is to do business here’, ‘Tell us what you need, and we will do it for you’.

To answer the question of what a migrant needs, you have to go and ask them. Depending on the region, district, or city, these priorities vary greatly. There are some priorities in a village with an agrarian way of life, while in a city, they are completely different.

The third is local taxes, which encourage the arrival or return of these people. For example, one of the practices in Asian countries is the possibility of importing equipment duty-free for those who come to start a business.